Summer league may come across as a joke and a waste of time to many NBA fans.  It looks like a glorified practice with the mesh reversible uniforms and I agree that it is tough to take things seriously when Skita can dominate the competition.  However, there are always some high draft picks out there and every once in a while you see a player that you just know is going to be a quality player in the NBA.  (Just look at the all tournament team from the 2004 Rocky Mountain Revue, sure there were three stiffs, including Skita, but there are also two borderline NBA stars as well)

Once again there will be three summer leagues in action this July.  The Orlando Pro Sumer League, featuring Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose, will begin games on Monday.  The NBA Summer League in Las Vegas kicks off their games on Friday the 11^th.  The Rocky Mountain Review in Salt Lake City will begin the Friday after that. 

The Nuggets will be playing in Vegas and they have announced their summer league roster.  There are some intriguing players on the list.

The biggest name is Chris Lofton the former All-American player from Tennessee.  Lofton holds the Southeastern Conference career record for most three pointers made.  He is not a point guard, but at a listed height of 6’ 2” if he wants to find a place in the NBA that is the position he will have to play.

Other recognizable names that college basketball fans will recognize are Keith Langford a guard from Kansas and Dahntay Jones a swingman from Duke that has hung around the fringes of the league thanks to his athleticism. 

Other notable names include Elton Brown, a big bruiser from the Colorado 14ers, and a couple of holdovers from last year Jelani McCoy and Curtis Sumpter. 

Current Nuggets on the roster include Sonny Weems, Taurean Green and Bobby Jones.  Weems will be fighting for a roster spot and Green and Jones will be playing to make sure they are not waived before August when their contracts become fully guaranteed.

As far as potential training camp invitees Weems will certainly be training with the Nuggets in the fall and Green and Jones will be there too unless they are waived sometime this month.  Other players with an outside shot at an invite are McCoy, I am not sure why he has not hung on to a roster spot in the NBA, Sumpter, who was impressive last summer, and Brown thanks to his strong track record of solid performance in the D-League.

There have been reports that the Nuggets were interested in signing Dahntay Jones in the past and he could be invited to training camp as well, but I do not believe he is an NBA caliber player.  The fact that he is from Duke does not help his case either.

The Nuggets first game will be Saturday the 12^th.  The television schedule has not been announced at this time, but NBATV will certainly air a good number of games and many game videos are archived online at NBA.com so we should get a chance to see much of the action.

No matter how you feel about summer league you can look forward to some Denver Nuggets game recaps and perhaps even some video in the coming weeks so it cannot be all bad right?

What does the signing of Baron Davis by the Clippers mean for the Nuggets?

Most clearly it alters the Western Conference playoff race for next season.  Golden State will struggle to keep up with the other playoff teams no matter who they spend their new found cap money on.  The Clippers are now a threat and the projected lineup of Davis, Cuttino Mobley, Al Thornton, Elton Brand and Chris Kaman with rookie scorer Eric Gordon coming off the pine they will be an offensive force.

The Nuggets have struggled with the Clippers over the past three seasons and those struggles will only intensify now that the roster is much more talented.

Davis’ transition from Golden State to Los Angeles could also have a more profound and direct impact on the Nuggets.  Because of the relatively small cap holds for the Warriors two key restricted free agents, Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins, and the sudden removal of over $17 million in salary due to Davis Golden State now has almost $20 million in cap space to play around with.  They have already offered Gilbert Arenas a max deal although Arenas will likely stay with the Wizards.  You better believe if, or when, they miss out on Agent 0 they will go after someone else.

The question is who? 

They love players who can get up and down the floor, hit the three and get to the rim.  Anyone coming to mind?  I would not be the least bit surprised if the Warriors offer J.R. Smith a big fat contract. 

The Warriors will undoubtedly retain Ellis, especially now that Davis is gone.  With the scarcity of quality point guards currently available they will probably pencil Ellis in as the starting point guard.  That leaves a big hole at shooting guard.  There are a couple of other options at shooting guard, but not many.  James Posey will probably stay with Boston or sign with another contender.  Ben Gordon is way too small to put in a backcourt with Ellis.  Philly will not let Andre Iguodala go.  Corey Maggette is an option, but he will probably want to sign with a contender as well.

Smith makes a lot of sense for the Warriors.  He is young and can grow with Ellis, Biedrins, and Brandan Wright.  He excels at the style they play which centers around three pointers, isos and scoring in transition.  Most importantly the Nuggets cannot afford to go big to retain him.  Should the Warriors get fed up with missing out on Arenas and Maggette they may just throw an offer sheet at Smith that starts at $10-$12 million just to make sure it is too rich for the Nuggets to match.  Heck, if Golden State ends up close to $20 million under the cap they can sign both Maggette and Smith.

All I know is the longer the Nuggets let Smith twist in the wind the more likely a team with money that has missed out on their first or second choice will come calling.  If the Nuggets think they can sit and wait for a team to sign Smith to the mid level exception so they can match it they will find themselves in some serious danger.

The bad news is if I can figure this out, you better believe Smith’s agent will be thinking about Golden State too.  The Nuggets front office better get in gear or risk seeing the Smith situation get out of control.

The draft is over and free agency is upon us.  From what little information has come from Nuggets HQ I believe they are hoping to make either a big deal, a handful of small deals or something in between.  At this point they are saying that Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson will be Nuggets next season.  That leaves only a handful of chips available to be shuffled around.

The only players on the roster outside of Melo that have value to other teams are Marcus Camby, Linas Kleiza, J.R. Smith and maybe Nene.  You can get decent players in exchange for any of those guys, but what will the Nuggets accomplish by merely shuffling decent players from team to team?

One thing I believe we know with some certainty is next season’s starting point guard is not currently on the roster.  Whether they bring him in as a free agent or via trade there is little doubt in my mind at some point before October the Nuggets will be acquiring a point guard.

The Nuggets will face a couple of problems in their search for a point guard.  The crop of free agent point guards are pretty sad and even if there is a free agent point guard they are interested in, they may not be able to add any payroll to sign him. 

As proof of how weak the point guard crop is here is a list of all the pass first starting quality point guards on the free agent market.

Jose Calderon

That is the list and he has very predictably agreed to contract terms with Toronto on the first day of negotiations.

The only other intriguing names from the list of free agent point guards all have at least one major flaw.  Sam Cassell is old and needs to go away.  Eddie House is not a true point guard.  Chris Duhon is a poor shooter.  Delonte West is solid, but he is not a true point and as a restricted free agent I cannot imagine Cleveland letting him get away.  J.J. Berea is teeny tiny.  Sasha Vujacic is far too effeminate and annoying to sign and if he wasn’t those things he is restricted anyway.  Jason Williams has many of the same problems as he had five years ago only without the flashy playmaking.  Sebastian Telfair cannot shoot and is small, although I still think he is a good distributor and can become a decent backup.  Jannero Pargo is a chucker.  Carlos Arroyo is…well I do not know exactly what is wrong with him, but he has had several chances to be a starter and failed each time (Utah, Detroit and Orlando).  Louis Williams is a future stud in my opinion, but is more of a combo guard and he is restricted.  Shaun Livingston would be very interesting if it were a sure thing that he would ever get on the court again.  Gilbert Arenas is already weighing two max contract offers from Washington and Golden State and Beno Udrih and Baron Davis have already agreed to terms with Sacramento and the Clippers respectively.

The trade market is only slightly more intriguing.  The list of point guards who have been rumored to be on the trading block (or in my mind could be) include Kirk Hinrich, Raymond Felton, Jamaal Tinsley, Leandro Barbosa, Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittenton, Marcus Williams, Sergio Rodriguez, Luke Ridnour and Antonio Daniels.  That is a better group than the free agent hoard, but between their games and bad contracts there are plenty of warts in that group as well.

After listing all of those names it is also possible the Nuggets could acquire someone else.  Just 24 hours ago who could have imagined Baron Davis would be a Los Angeles Clipper next season?  Things can change quickly in the offseason. 

The Nuggets also have to decide what to do with J.R. Smith, Eduardo Najera, Anthony Carter, Taurean Green and Bobby Jones.  Apparently Yakhouba Diawara has already been shown the door as he was not extended a qualifying offer.  He may sign with the Nuggets for a lower salary, but I believe the Nuggets have realized that he is an extremely limited player.

It is difficult to project what the Nuggets might do.  The primary question is how high will Stan Kronke allow the payroll to climb.  I believe the reports that he desperately wants to win and last year he proved that he will shell out the cash to do it.  However, the Steve Blake/Chucky Atkins swap proved that Kronke’s spending has limits.

I have no doubt there will be some difficult decisions ahead for the Nuggets over the next four months.  The question is if those decisions are along the lines of should we bring back Bobby Jones or should we match the five year, $50 million offer sheet for J.R. Smith.  I doubt the latter will be a problem, but I doubted Baron Davis was going to leave the Warriors too.

Your Attention Please:  None of the following transactions have taken place or even been rumored to take place.  This is entirely my own personal Denver Nuggets fantasy team so enjoy the read and let me know if you think I am absolutely crazy or absolutely brilliant.

This is the last time I will mention my personal dream world plans for the Nuggets this offseason, but I figured I would throw together a final composite roster from the imagined trades that I would have made.

My Imaginary Trades

I am on board with the trade the Nuggets made with the Bulls for Sonny Weems, but I would have had the Bulls select Chris Douglas-Roberts instead.

I would have traded Marcus Camby, Chucky Atkins and the Nuggets 20^th pick in the 2008 draft to the Knicks for the sixth pick and Eddy Curry’s contract.  With the sixth pick I would have drafted Jerryd Bayless.

The last, and biggest trade I would have made (and this one is out of left field the Douglas-Roberts deal actually happened for Weems, I ran the Camby trade by Posting and Toasting and it was approved by Knicks fans) is Allen Iverson to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for Anderson Varejao, Wally Sczczerbiak’s shooting and $13 million expiring contract and the 19^th pick which I would have used to draft, you guessed it, Mario Chalmers.

I would also sign J.R. Smith to a three year contract with a starting salary in the $6.5 million range and would have offered Eduardo Najera a three year, nine million dollar contract.

After completing those transactions I present to you the 2008-2009 Pickaxe and Roll Nuggets.

Starters:

PG – Jerryd Bayless

SG – J.R. Smith

SF – Carmelo Anthony

PF – Kenyon Martin

C – Nene

Bench:

PG – Mario Chalmers, Taurean Green

SG – Chris Douglas-Roberts

SF – Linas Kleiza, Wally Szczerbiak, Bobby Jones

PF – Anderson Varejao, Eddy Najera

C – Steven Hunter, Eddy Curry

The Pickaxe and Roll Nuggets would have a payroll of $86-$87 million which is a little higher than last year, and may be beyond what Stan Kronke would be willing to pay for a team without AI and Camby, but I think the future is much brighter with this group.

There are two negatives for this roster.  First of all the back court is comprised entirely of first and second year players.  Second of all we now have Eddy Curry’s terrible contract.  There is no remedy for the first problem other than time, but I would try work on a buyout with Curry that would alleviate some of the burden on Kronke’s coffers.  I doubt Curry would be happy being the third string center and he may welcome a chance to play somewhere else.  Where that somewhere else is I have no idea, but that is not my problem.

What excites me about this group is it is a better shooting team and they would be better defensively than the team we had to watch last year.  They can still play at a fast pace, but when they need stops they have a tremendous group of interior defenders in Martin, Nene, Varejao and Hunter.

Another benefit to this roster is the contracts for Kenyon Martin, Eddy Curry, J.R. Smith, and Eduardo Najera, totaling around $40 million, all come off the books in the summer of 2011.  If something goes wrong we can start over with a core of Melo, Bayless, Varejao, Kleiza, Douglas-Roberts and Chalmers or trade an expiring contract or two.

Of course ultimately the success of this team would depend on the exact same thing that the actual real life Nuggets depend on, Melo deciding that winning and playing defense is every bit as important as making the All-Star team.

During the mammoth eight hour long Ridiculous Upside NBA Draft live blog I joked that the only activity in the Nuggets war room was the janitor entering the room to clean up.  Well, I guess someone was around after all as the Nuggets completed a late night trade with the Bulls and Trailblazers that ended up bringing Sonny Weems to the Mile High City.

I know I have seen Weems play here and there because I have see Arkansas play a couple of times while he was there.  On the other hand, I have no recollection of noticing Weems at all. 

Here are two things I have found out about Weems. 

He can dunk.

And apparently he passed his college algebra test.

His numbers are solid for a college player.  He averaged 15 points a game and has tremendous size and athleticism for a shooting guard.  In the first round of the 2008 NCAA tournament he shot 12-14 and scored 31 points.  He certainly has the ability to play in the NBA.  On the other hand he had more turnovers than assists and shot an unspectacular 37% from the college three point line.  Basicaly a poor man's J.R. Smith with an attitude adjustment.

My favorite excerpt from his profile on Draft Express proves why the Nuggets were interested in him.

Defensively, Weems is extremely poor, clearly lacking awareness and fundamentals, not getting in any type of real stance, getting lost within his team’s scheme on a regular basis, and often resorting to just gambling for steals and chasing after the ball instead of rotating and playing sound defense. He has all the tools to be extremely effective in this area, so it’s a bit surprising why he can’t translate them into success on this end of the floor. His junior college roots likely have a lot to do with it.

Clearly he will fit right in defensively.

My biggest problem with this deal is (here it comes) they ended up trading a future second round draft pick for him.  Miami acquired Mario Chalmers for two second round draft picks.  Had the Nuggets simply thrown in an additional second round pick they could have acquired Chalmers.  Obviously the Nuggets are no where near as impressed as I am with Chalmers, but they still desperately need a point guard.

The good news that came out of the draft last night was Michael Jordan continued to prove that he is a poor GM.  D.J. Augustin is a good player, but he is not that much of an upgrade over Raymond Felton.  He will be a defensive liability and it will clearly take him some time to adjust to the NBA.  Their second pick of Alexis Ajinca was the typical Hail Mary big man pick.  Ajinca looks great in workouts, but so did Skita.  You have to judge these guys based on what they do during games and Ajinca could only average five points and five rebounds in France.  Even if he does pan out, it will not be for at least two more years.  In my mind those picks make the future draft pick the Bobcats owe the Nuggets a little more valuable.  The question is does it make it more valuable in the minds of other GMs around the league that the Nuggets will be looking to trade it to.

Other good news is the Golden State Warriors drafted a player in Anthony Randolph who will not help them one bit next season so they did not get any immediate help in the draft to help pass the Nuggets next season.

Portland on the other hand is a completely different story.  Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy, LeMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Channing Frye, Nicholas Batum and Joel Przybilla.  That is not even a complete list of all their assets.  If Oden can produce at anywhere near what is expected of him Portland is going to be dominant very soon for a very long time.

In the end it might not matter what the Nuggets do, they will probably just end up as a chew toy for the Trailblazers.

Before we start make sure you check out the live blog on Ridiculous Upside.  I will be checking in from time to time, but do not let that stop you from participating.

I do not think I have really communicated how much I love the NBA Draft.  I love watching games and video and trying to project whether a player can hack it in the NBA.  In that spirit here are my thoughts on some of the draft eligible players.

Derrick Rose – I think the Rose bandwagon is getting a little carried away.  He absolutely is a special player, but I think the comparisons of his point guard skills to those of Chris Paul are way off.  I reviewed the Kansas/Memphis title game last night and Rose has great size and strength for a point guard, he can get in the lane at will and has nuclear athleticism, but he is a limited shooter and I think his passing skills are overrated.  He also does not seem to have that instinct to see two or three moves ahead.  I am sure I will take some heat for this, if anyone actually reads it, but I think Rose is being set up to fail with such high expectations.  Especially considering there is almost no debate over whether or not he should be the top pick.

Michael Beasley – Conversely I think Beasley is being undervalued.  The only knock on him that I think is relevant is his lack of defense and that is a big knock.  However, he has the skills and size to be a good defender.  I am not concerned about his prankster/joker personality.  I think he is a worker and plays with great intensity.  He knew that playing at Kansas State would be his one season dress rehearsal for the NBA and he proved that he took the game seriously.

OJ Mayo – I agree with the general consensus that OJ is the third best prospect in the draft.  He has been picked apart more than anyone else which is to be expected since he was on the radar screen as a 16 year old.  He is strong, can handle the ball and shoot and has the ability to play great perimeter defense.  He certainly is not going to live up to his former billing as the next LeBron, but he is going to be an all-star.

Kevin Love – I have almost no feel for how Love will turn out.  I could see him being a very good starter or a rider of the bench.  I have serious concerns about his ability to keep up in the NBA, but on the other hand he has some amazing skills as a big man.  Maybe he is a capable of passing on the last four pieces of lemon meringue pie version of Oliver Miller.  Love will clearly not eat himself out of the league and is reportedly in great shape, but he just is not explosive and needs to go to a team who is more half court oriented.

Anthony Randolph – He has some impressive skills, but it seems to me like if he pans out it will be for a team other than the one that drafts him.

Robin Lopez – I do not see a first round pick here.  He may stick in the league simply by being tall and working hard, but he will never play more than 15 minutes a game for a decent team.

Mario Chalmers – You know me likey.  After watching his performance in the championship game again I was even more impressed.  He is fast yet under control, makes great entry passes to the post.  Can drive with either hand (he is very good going to his left) and we all know he can shoot.  If he is still on the board when the 20^th pick comes up I will be difficult to be around.

J.J. Hickson – I do not see what is not to like.  This guy is going to be a steal in the 20’s.

Roy Hibbert – I do not understand how anyone can watch him move and still think he can survive in the NBA.  He is Gheorghe Muresan without the ability to rebound or sell cologne.  Bad combination.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – He is the Antawn Jamison of perimeter players.  He is very unorthodox and it makes him highly effective.  If he could get to the point where he can hit 37% from the NBA three point line he will score 20 points a game.

Jason Thompson – I do not know what the big deal is with this guy.  There are reports he could go 14^th!  He has size and is somewhat mobile, but I am not impressed.  He is not particularly athletic and does not protect his shot very well.  He opens the ball up to the defender which is fine when you are playing Siena.  It is not fine when you are playing Dwight Howard.

Bill Walker – He will be an absolute steal wherever he goes.  He already has an NBA caliber post game for a shooting guard.  He can get to the rim and you know he is a hard worker after coming back from two major knee injuries.  I would take him in the 20’s ahead of all the big stiffs like JaVale McGee, Jason Thompson, Alexis Ajinca and Hibbert.  Way ahead of them.

Richard Hendrix – I have liked Hednrix’s game since I saw him in one of the high school all-star contests.  He is small, but can score around the basket.  Think a slightly smaller and saner Zach Randolph.  He will make a very good early second round selection.

Malik Hariston – He never lived up to his billing as a high school stud, but he knows how to play has good size and will help someone next year.  Then he will only get better.

Longar Longar – I just want to hear Jay Bilas say Longar Longar has great length.  I think there is a potential nursery rhyme in there somewhere.

Enjoy the darft everyone!Is D

Nuggets fans, look at the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns were a championship caliber team who completely ignored the draft and have slowly crumbled under the pressure of maintaining their high level of play without bringing in young players to help fill in the gaps.

Phoenix’s decision to ignore the draft has been financially based.  They did not understand that even though they could get $3 million per pick, down the road they are weakening their team and actually costing themselves more money due to the fact they had no cheap contracts on the roster.  They had to sign players like Marcus Banks at $5 million a year instead of Rajon Rondo at $1 million a year. 

The Nuggets may not be selling their picks off and at least have the advantage of acquiring future selections when they trade out of the draft, but they are still missing the boat.

Nuggets Vice President of Basketball Operations Mark Warkentien was on FM 104.3 the FAN this morning and although I missed most of the interview, I have heard some blurbs after the fact.  One point Warkentien made was the fact that no rookies made a major impact in the playoffs last season.  Mike and Sandy, who were conducting the interview kind of gave him a free pass, but I am not going to.  There were rookies that contributed to their team’s success in the playoffs such as Al Horford, Thaddeus Young, Julian Wright, Glen Davis and the big one, Rodney Stucky.

Granted most of those guys were drafted before the 20^th pick, but to just outright say there is no one at 20 who can contribute to this team is ridiculous.  I keep talking about Mario Chalmers, but he would be the best point guard on the team if they drafted him this year.  He would also be cheap bringing in a salary of only $1 million as the 20^th selection.  Now there is certainly a good chance that Chalmers will be off the board when they pick, but why not wait until someone drafts him before you opt out of the process?

The draft is the one chance you have to get something for nothing.  Every team is awarded a first round pick and a second round pick every year.  You do not have to do anything to earn it, other than staying solvent and not making under the table deals with Joe Smith.  We know that probably about half of the players will stick in the league and half will not.  Some will even become stars.  If you use your pick wisely you have just earned a competitive advantage over the teams who used their picks poorly.  This is especially true the later you are drafting. 

Obviously the success rate of draftees falls off as the draft progresses, but there are still tremendous players who are drafted in the late first and second rounds.  If you draft a Tony Parker, Josh Howard, David Lee or even Linas Kleiza you have just added a tremendous asset very cheaply.  In addition you have earned a big advantage on the teams who drafted Wayne Simien or Sergei Monia and received nothing for their pick.  Every other way to improve your team costs something.  Trades can cost you players, draft picks and/or salary cap space.  Signing a free agent will cost you money, perhaps even a lot of money (right Orlando fans), and cap space. 

The draft is a free shot at gaining an advantage over your competition and the Nuggets rarely take that shot at going after that advantage.   

The other reasoning Warkentien provided for why they made the deal was that they are basically stockpiling assets.  Knowing what we know about this organization they are probably going to use this pick to package in a future trade.  Taking into account what I have heard from the interview and the comments after it, they will probably look to trade it this offseason to acquire a veteran player.  Warkentien made it very clear that the Nuggets are playing for this season and they are going to let the future worry about itself. 

That brings us to my biggest problem with the management.  They think this team is better than it really is.  We have seen this team fail in the playoffs time and time again, including twice with the current mix.  They are more than a tweak here or there from making any noise.  I had written that the draft was their chance to begin to chart a new course and instead they chose to kick on the afterburners even though they do not have enough gas to reach their destination.

None of us know what kind of deal the Nuggets are cooking up and I may turn out to be wrong.  They just might pull off a deal that is better than any of us could have imagined.  Even if that happens I still stand by my argument that the Nuggets are missing the boat they way they choose to consistently pass on the draft.

Phoenix is feeling the pain and I fear the Nuggets soon will as well.

The Nuggets have once again proven that they find the draft to be a completely unnecessary part of building a team.  They have traded the 20th pick to Charlotte for a protected future first round pick.  In 2009 it is lottery protected.  In 2010 it is protected 1-12, 2011 it is protected 1-10, then 1-8 in 2012 and finally 1-3 in 2013.

Charlotte is a terrible organization and the chances the Nuggets get a decent lottery pick out of the deal is pretty solid.  Of course, that would be in 2011 or 2012.

Needless to say, a top ten pick in 2012 will not make the 2008 draft any more exciting to watch.  And to make things worse, although I saw this coming, I wasted a bunch of time on my draft preview today as well as a follow up article with a more narrow look at players that had been linked to the Nuggets.  Thanks a lot.

Do not discount the financial impact of this deal.  The 20th pick would have received around $1 million next season and that is money they do not have to spend.  However, now that they are not acquiring a player (point guard) in the draft they are going to have to resign Anthony Carter, or some free agent, to play the point and I doubt they will sign that player for less than what that draft pick would have made. 

The Suns have made a similar mistake in the past selling off draft picks that would have provided cheaper alternatives to expensive veterans they had to sign because they had no young players coming down the pike.

There is a silver lining in all of this.  There is no way the Nuggets will end up with DeAndre Jordan.

The Denver Nuggets have not been one of the more effective teams in building through the draft.  The only player on the roster who was drafted by the Nuggets is Carmelo Anthony (although Nene and Linas Kleiza were drafted for the Nuggets by other teams).  Aside from failing to help their team through the draft there is one thing you can count on with the Nuggets.  They will probably make a trade.

Since drafting Carmelo Anthony in 2003 with their first round pick the Nuggets have traded a first round pick every season since.  The years they have not already given their pick away they still end up working up a trade on draft night.  In 2004 they drafted Jameer Nelson with the 20^th pick and shipped him off to Orlando.  In 2005 they had the 20^th and 22^nd picks.  They kept the 20^th pick and drafted Julius Hodge.  With the 22^nd pick they drafted Jarrett Jack, but then traded him to Portland for the 27^th pick, Linas Kleiza, and the 35^th pick, which turned out to be the only player not in the NBA Draft media guide that was drafted, the incomparable Ricky Sanchez.  Actually, he is very comparable and the comparison that comes to mind is the Nikiloz Tskitishvili of the second round.

The wheeling and dealing even goes back before 2003.  In the 2002 draft Antonio McDyess and the draft rights to Frank Williams were sent to New York in exchange for Marcus Camby and the draft rights to Nene.  There have been a couple of other first round picks they acquired from other teams that they used, but the point is it is rare that the Nuggets hang on to their own first round pick, use it and keep the player.  Chances are there is a trade coming with the 20^th pick in the 2008 draft.

In fact over the previous ten drafts, going back to 1999, the Nuggets have used and retained their first round pick only three times.  Who were the three players?  Skita, Melo and Julius Hodge.  Not the best track record.  Maybe we should pray for a trade.

Even so, there is a chance that the Nuggets can help themselves in the draft.  It is clear what this team needs, an upgrade at point guard and some front court depth in case Kenyon Martin, Nene or Camby are either injured or traded.  They are set at shooting guard with Allen Iverson and J.R. Smith.  They have a good duo of small forwards with Melo and Kleiza.  And if Martin and Nene could be counted on to stay healthy and George Karl would use Steven Hunter they would be pretty well set in the front court as well.  Add in Eduardo Najera and the Nuggets go at least two deep at every position except for point guard where they may very well be zero deep.

In the Ridiculous Upside blogger mock draft I selected Mario Chalmers citing the facts that he is a good defender, can shoot, penetrate and knows how to play winning basketball on a talented team.  At the time I thought it was a bit of a reach, but since then Chalmers stock has skyrocketed to the point where he could go as early as 12^th to Sacramento.  If Chalmers is not available for the Nuggets at 20, there is no other point guard that is worth drafting until the early second round. 

If Chalmers does not drop to the Nuggets at pick number 20 they would have to either address their point guard position via a trade or free agency.  One potential deal I could foresee would be a swap with the Trailblazers.  Portland has reportedly purchased the 27^th pick from New Orleans.  They now have five picks in the draft and no where on their roster to put them.  Would Portland be willing to swap the 27^th and 33^rd or 36^th picks with the Nuggets in exchange for the 20^th pick?  The Nuggets could grab a point guard with either of the picks they receive from Portland. 

 The question then is who could they draft?

Kyle Weaver out of Washington State is a nice player similar to Russell Westbrook, but I do not think he has the ball handling and penetration skills required to be a quality point guard in the NBA.  He did raise his three point shooting to a decent 36% last season, but he is not a shooter who can spot up and hit open jumpers from the perimeter.  However, he would fit the profile of a big guard who could help mask AI’s deficiencies as a defender as a miniature shooting guard. 

Another potential point guard prospect the Nuggets could consider in the late first or early second round is Jamont Gordon from Mississippi State, but he is more of a scoring guard in the mold of AI and is an even worse shooter than Weaver.

The other available options would be Mike Taylor, who was booted from Iowa State and played with the Idaho Stampede in the D League last season, or George Hill from IUPUI (that is Indiana University/Purdue University at Indianapolis).  Taylor, like Gordon, is a scoring guard who would make for a poor defensive backcourt while teamed with AI.  Hill is a more of an undersized shooting guard with some point guard skills.  He has decent size, is a good shooter and is a very efficient scorer averaging a mind boggling 1.7 points per shot last season.  He shot over 50% from the field each of his three college seasons.

Out of those four players my preference would be for Weaver or Hill although neither is as good of a point guard prospect as Taurean Green.

The Nuggets are a very tight lipped organization this time of year so it is very difficult to surmise what they are thinking.  The do have a draft section on their official website.  The only really interesting aspect of it is they have a few prospects that they profile by position.  I think it will be very interesting to see if they draft a player out of that group of profiled prospects or if that is more of a smokescreen designed to make other teams wonder if those are the players they are interested in.  I imagine the profiles were put together by someone in the media department and they are simply their best guesses as to who might be available, but I would not put it past the Nuggets, or any other team really, to use their draft section to spread disinformation.

The players that they have featured by position are point guard Chalmers, shooting guards Chris Douglas-Roberts, Courtney Lee and Brandon Rush, small forwards Nicholas Batum, Donte Greene and Bill Walker, power forwards Darrell Arthur, J.J. Hickson and Nathan Jawai and centers Kosta Koufos, Robin Lopez, JaVale McGee and Marreese Speights.  They also list a handful of other prospects after the featured players.  The only other point guard listed is Mike Taylor.  Jamont Gordon and Kyle Weaver are listed, but as shooting guards.  Hill is not listed, but that might just mean he is the player they really want.  The list of the other players named is too long to print here, but you can check it out for yourself if you are so inclined.

Blah, blah, blah, what does all of this mean? 

My ideal draft for the Nuggets, aside from them trading Camby (to the Knicks for the 6^th pick - Jerryd Bayless? and Eddy Curry - by him out) and AI (to Cleveland for Wally Szczerbiak, Andreson Varejao and the 19^th pick – Courtney Lee) as I have discussed previously, would be to have Chalmers fall to the Nuggets with their 20^th pick, which is entirely possible. Even though Chad Ford at ESPN.com has Chalmers going 12^th to Sacramento, he has admitted that this draft has been the most difficult one to project.  It does seem teams are looking for more of a safe bet than reaching for the high upside players as they have in the past.  If that is indeed the case Chalmers is clearly one of the players who will climb the draft boards.  However, Draft Express still has Chalmers going 27^th.

If the Nuggets cannot land Chalmers, the other player I am interested in is J.J. Hickson from North Carolina State.  He is a very powerful forward who has a knack for scoring in the paint.  He is only 19 and already has an NBA body.  He has a turn around jumper that looks good out to 12 or 15 feet and also has a jumper that will extend out about that far as well.  The only question mark about Hickson is his lateral quickness, but from what I have seen, he is plenty quick.  His beef would provide that depth inside that we discussed earlier that would help protect against another injury plagued season from Martin or Nene and he would be the Nuggets third best post scorer as soon as David Stern would call his name.

Other players that intrigue me are Donte Greene, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Courtney Lee and Kosta Koufos though I have reservations about all of them.  With Green I do not see the need to add another high volume shooter to the roster.  Douglas Roberts is not a good perimeter shooter and Lee is a solid player in the mold of a Rodney Stucky, although without the point skills, but my primary concern with him is that his presence might make it easier to let J.R. Smith walk and talent wise Lee is a far cry from Smith.  Koufos is a highly skilled big man, but can he rebound and defend against NBA centers?

Nicholas Batum is another player that I like, but how does he fit in with Melo and Kleiza in front of him?  He probably would not play for at least two seasons and with the Nuggets current aged roster they are playing for now, not the future.

There are also a gaggle of players that I am exceedingly fearful of and that group includes Robin Lopez, Alexis Ajinca, Roy Hibbert, JaVale McGee and DeAndre Jordan.  Lopez is nowhere near even Steven Hunter’s talent level.  Ajinca is the typical workout wonder that is shooting up the charts despite the fact that he was not able to be an effective player in France.  Hibbert is the typical stiff who will get circles run around him by other centers. McGee is a good dunker, but can do little else and Jordan lacks the desire to improve.

With all of that being said, in the end none of us really have any idea what the Nuggets will do.  Will they trade down?  Trade up?  Trade out?  Will Chalmers fall to them?  If so, do they take him or go after some high risk, high reward bust waiting to happen?

Only time will tell and fortunately for us that time is near.

Heading up to the NBA Draft, the official kickoff of the offseason, we have analyzed the work of George Karl and the entire Nuggets roster.  Now we need to look at the organization as a whole.

If you want to read an in depth post on the head honchos that are running the show check out this post over at Denver Stiffs (formerly Fire George Karl).  I will sum it up by saying this group does not inspire a great deal of confidence, but how many front offices in the NBA do?

What I want to focus on is the overall philosophy the organization has as to how basketball should be played in Denver and this issue digs to the very heart of the Denver sports psyche.

Denver is the Mile High City.  The Mile High City is not just a tourist attracting slogan.  It is an identity, especially amongst the sports teams.  Denver teams have had a long track record of winning at home.  No matter how poor the team was, whether it was the Broncos, the Nuggets or the Rockies, they almost always had one of the better home records in their respective sport.

The Rockies are a separate animal because in baseball you cannot physically wear the other team down as you can in football or basketball, but it has been cannon in Denver that due to the thin air other teams will wear down as the contest goes on and then the home team can pound them into submission.

Now this was not just an old wives’ tale.  Football and Basketball players have for years lamented having to play in Denver.  Every game we would see images of the opponents bench where players were lined up waiting for a chance to clamp an oxygen mask to their grill.

However, in recent years we have seen less and less of that. 

The Mile High effect came into being with the Broncos back in the day when playing football was a seasonal job.  There were no year round training routines or "voluntary" workouts.  Players were in worse shape, not only in the offseason, but also during the season.

Today, (most) players stay in at least preseason shape for much of the year, even in the offseason.  No one needs an offseason job anymore.  Their job is to keep in shape and hone their talents.  Professional sports has transformed into a completely different animal from the time when athletes were left panting on the sidelines at Mile High Stadium or McNichols Arena.

Even with this very sizeable difference in the way athletes train the Broncos and Nuggets still cling to this idea that their opponents will wear down simply due to the altitude.  In fact, the Nuggets base how they construct their team on that very assumption.

The question that I have to ask is has that assumption become a faulty one. 

To answer that question, let’s look at some data.  I have done exhaustive research that would make the top criminal defense attorney envious.  What I wanted to determine was if the Nuggets home dominance has been consistent throughout the years or has it waned a little as athletes have dedicated themselves to being in better shape. 

In order to quantify whether or not the Nuggets had been slipping at home relative to the 1970’s and 1980’s when they had an advantage simply due to the fact that their opponents were not in tip top shape I decided to compare the Nuggets home winning percentage against their road winning percentage in every season since 1970. 

By doing that we can track what seasons the Nuggets held a significant home court advantage and performed exceedingly better there than on the road.  If the distribution of the seasons with a large difference between home and road winning percentages is spread consistently throughout all seasons, then there is no reason to worry about the Nuggets losing their home court edge.  However, if most of the seasons where the Nuggets had a large difference between their home and road winning percentages are skewed towards the old days I think we have something to worry about.

I rummaged through BasketballReference.com to record the Nuggets home record, overall record and pace factor all the way back to 1970 and ranked all those seasons based on the criteria listed above.  
 

Here is what I found out. 

 - Out of the top 15 seasons with the largest discrepancy between their home winning percentage and road winning percentage only three occurred after 1990.

 - The bottom six seasons with the smallest difference between home winning percentage and road winning percentage all occurred after 1993.

 - Of the 35 seasons where pace factor has been calculated the Nuggets were either first or second in pace factor 18 times and in the top five 25 times.

 - Those 25 seasons are spread all over the chart from the highest home/road differential (1988 differential of 0.634, number one in pace factor) to the smallest differential (2006 differential of 0.024, number two in pace factor).  They can be good or average at home even when they run.

I also ranked each season by home court winning percentage alone and only four of the top 16 seasons (four seasons tied for 13^th thus I included all of them) occurred after 1988 and out of the bottom 11 seasons only two occurred before 1990.  This can be slightly misleading because most of the quality teams in Nuggets history played before 1988 and that is why I used the difference between home and road winning percentages at first, but it still shows that the Nuggets were best at home in the "out of shape athlete" era.

Now what can we do with that data?  I did even more research (if only I had worked so hard in college) and checked the pace factor of every championship team since the 1980 finals.  Guess how many teams have been in the top five in the league in pace factor and won an NBA championship? 

Exactly one.  The 1982 Los Angeles Lakers.

In fact out of those 28 championship teams only four of them were in single digits in pace factor.  Twenty-one of the 28 were actually in the bottom half of the league in pace factor.

Due to the evidence we have that players are in better shape today, the fact that the most extreme home court advantages for Denver largely occurred before 1990 and the complete absence of running teams in the annals of the NBA that have won championships don’t we have to sit back and question whether or not it is intelligent for the Nuggets to keep pushing the run-the-opponent-out-of-the-gym philosophy.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news Denver sports fans, but the era of the Mile High advantage is over.  People have questioned why the Broncos have struggled at home since they turned Mile High Stadium into a parking lot.  Most of the excuses center around the lack of true fans who can afford to go and the inability of the stadium to trap noise.  Probably equally culpable is the fact that today’s athletes are in better shape and can handle the rare air.

The same thing goes for the Nuggets.  The gimmick is over.  If the Nuggets want to become an elite team, they better learn to focus on defense and shooting.  Just look at the teams that have won the title over the past twenty years.  Teams like the Pistons, Bulls, Rockets, Spurs and now the Celtics have had elite defenses.  Even the Shaq/Kobe Lakers were a very good defensive team.  They have also been teams that have several players that can step out and hit the three or closer perimeter jump shots.

It will certainly be difficult to convince a city that the identity they have clung to for 40 years is no longer applicable, but hopefully the Nuggets brass will be able to see the writing on the wall.  As fun as it is to see them run the Sonics off the court and put up 168 points pales in comparison to the annoying cycle of first round exits we have been experiencing.

They have a few players that can fit that mold.  Nene, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby have the makings of being a very good interior defense.  Melo has the ability to defend, he just has to commit to doing it.  Same with J.R. Smith, he can be an above defender if he will put in the time to learn how to do it.  They have a decent foundation.  As far as shooters go, well the cupboard is almost empty. 

What is important is they have a shot at remaking their roster significantly over the next two to three seasons, starting on draft night.  Shred the run and gun blueprint.  It has not worked at all over the past 20 years.